Month: January 2026

ABC Australia – An independent fact-finding mission should investigate potential crimes against humanity committed by Iran, according to the UN-appointed representative looking into the regime’s human rights abuses.

In an exclusive interview with ABC News, Mai Sato, special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran, estimated the number of civilians killed by the regime was at least 5,000.

The United Nations Human Rights Council would hold an emergency meeting and could re-establish an independent fact-finding mission into Iran that could investigate whether Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei should be referred to the International Criminal Court, she said.

She said she had heard reports from doctors inside Iran that the number of civilians killed could be 20,000 or more.

Last week, the United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting to discuss the Islamic Republic’s targeting of protesters.

After statements last week by US President Donald Trump that the United States may intervene, the council suggested the situation in Iran was best addressed through diplomacy and dialogue.

But human rights groups and NGOs are calling for an emergency session of the UN Human Rights Council — which does not rely on veto powers of China and Russia — to address mass killings of protesters.

Unlike the Security Council, the Human Rights Council can establish investigations and make recommendations to member states.

Ms Sato told ABC News there could be an emergency Human Rights Council session as early as this week that could call for the continuation of an international fact-finding mission that was created after the 2022 Women, Life, Freedom protests.

“They could be mandated to investigate this [latest] protest and the human rights impact in order to collect evidence and hold people accountable,” she said.

Ms Sato said the international fact-finding mission’s mandate was set to come to an end in March and could be extended.

Investigating crimes against humanity

Asked whether she believed crimes against humanity had been committed, Ms Sato said there may have been, but investigation was required.

“Crimes against humanity [are] defined as widespread, systematic human rights violations against civilians, and that includes murder, torture, arbitrary detention,” she said.

“There also needs to be intent. There [have] been so many casualties, and I have seen so many videos of security forces opening fire to unarmed civilians.

“But I think what we are seeing is extremely serious and after that I think the fact-finding mission, which is already in place, will be best placed to investigate that.”

Similarly, when asked about the potential for Mr Khamenei and other people within the regime to be referred to the International Criminal Court, Ms Sato said an investigation would need to come first.

Ms Sato said any potential prosecution of Iran’s rulers for crimes against humanity could either “take place at the ICC or states could exercise universal jurisdiction”.

The latter refers to the ability of a national court to prosecute individuals for serious crimes against international law.

The ABC has verified videos showing protesters shot in the face and hundreds of bodies lined up outside morgues in massacres committed by regime forces.

An internet blackout has made it extremely difficult to reach Iranians inside the country, but some protesters who broke through to speak with the ABC via a Starlink connection have been calling for the United States and the wider international community to step in and support them.

Ms Sato, who had been investigating the regime’s human rights abuses before the latest protests broke out, noted record numbers of executions in Iran took place last year.

The Norwegian-based Iran Human Rights (IHR) group said it had verified at least 1,500 executions up until the start of December, adding many more had taken place since.

Ms Sato was worried, under the communications blackout and despite public assurances from the regime, the Islamic Republic could continue with executions and numbers could again rise.

“The death penalty in Iran has been a serious concern,” Ms Sato said.

‘5,000 to 20,000’ killed by regime

Ms Sato said the Islamic Republic was deliberately attempting to conceal the mass killing of protesters on the street by shutting down the internet, as well as the telecommunications network.

In some cases, families were forced to pay up to $US7,000 ($10,400) to collect their loved ones’ bodies, she said.

Videos shared with the ABC appear to show distraught families searching for loved ones, trying to identify them, and in some cases, wailing beside their lifeless bodies.

The near-total internet blackout that has covered Iran has made it impossible to independently verify the number of people killed.

The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency’s (HRANA’s) latest figure on the number of confirmed fatalities has reached 4,029, while the number of fatalities under review stands at 9,049.

Additionally, the group said at least 5,811 people sustained severe injuries during the protests, and the total number of arrests had risen to 26,015.

When asked about a separate report compiled by doctors inside Iran and shared with ABC News that at least 16,500 protesters had been killed and about 330,000 injured, Ms Sato said she was receiving similar figures.

“I would put the minimum estimates … to be 5,000-plus and that’s sort of the more conservative organisations reporting that figure,” she said.

“But … also Iranian authorities have said it will be around 5,000 deaths, so I think that is the minimum.

“And then I’ve also received reports up to 20,000 — they have been largely through courageous doctors with access to Starlink being able to provide information of people who they’ve received in hospital.”

Ms Sato said not all doctors were able to provide information.

“I think the actual number, once we have more information, will be significantly higher,” she said.

There are concerns from human rights organisations that Iran’s internet blockade could be protracted, leading to extreme digital isolation of the country’s citizens.

Ms Sato said to address this, the Geneva-based International Telecommunication Union, an agency of the United Nations that aims to facilitate international cooperation and improve telecommunication infrastructure in the developing world, could be asked to step in and help.

She said the ITU could be urged by UN member states “to make a strong statement about the internet shutdown” and that could then lead to countries stepping in to assist with connections when needed.

Will UN member countries take ‘bold action’ against Iran’s rulers?

While Ms Sato had seen videos of Iranian protesters calling for US intervention, she hoped there would instead be multilateral action.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies Iran Program, which is staunchly anti-regime, said UN member states needed to take “bold national efforts” to help the Iranian people.

“It’s high time to beef up the existing UN fact-finding mission on Iran and either extend or amend its mandate or push for a new one altogether given what is fast appearing to be the most violent crackdown … from the state against the street in contemporary Iranian history,” he told ABC News.

“⁠While nowhere near sufficient, international naming and shaming is necessary. It was clearly critical enough that even US President Donald Trump told Iranians to keep lists of their oppressors.”

Mr Taleblu said the international community should now move quickly to determine if and how the ICC might be able to prosecute Iranian officials, including Mr Khamenei and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani, who is widely considered one of the architects of the crackdown and was sanctioned by the US Department of Treasury last week.

“While this is complicated by Iran not being a party to the Rome statute [the government framework for the ICC], United Nations Security Council referral to the court by member states or dossiers submitted to the ICC prosecutor by activists and lawyers in member states could help to pave the way,” he said.

Mr Taleblu also called on individual member states not to “take solace in an exclusively international and legal process”.

He said member states were required to follow up on important diplomatic efforts of entities like the World Economic Forum and the Munich Security Conference, which have now refused to invite Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to their high-profile conferences.

Ms Sato would not predict whether the regime would ultimately fall, but noted that protests started in Tehran with the merchants expressing dissatisfaction and strong dissent over the state of Iran’s economy.

She said her previous UN reports had noted the economic crisis and questioned how it would be possible, under such circumstances, for the regime to carry on.

“And they’re potentially asking for governmental change. And they have the right to exercise that.”

Ms Sato’s reports have also looked at how the regime has been engaging in “transnational repression”, which includes targeting of Iranian journalists and activists abroad.

“I think it happens at two levels outside and also inside the country. I haven’t received reports of that having escalated during the protest, but I think that is to do with the shutdown that’s happening at the moment,” she said.

“I’ve been informed of cases in Australia and also in other countries as well. And I think governments are starting to take serious notice of how serious transnational repression is.”

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Internet monitoring group NetBlocks reported Monday that Iran’s connectivity landscape had shifted dramatically as the country entered its 22nd day of unrest, following several days of almost total nationwide internet shutdown.

“On the twenty-second day, after several days of an almost complete internet shutdown, reports emerged of limited and unstable internet connectivity in some parts of the country,” NetBlocks reported.

“Indications are that we’re seeing a move toward a kind of ‘filternet plus’ censorship scheme in Iran,” NetBlocks CEO Alp Toker told Fox News Digital before pointing to “a rapid decline into a darker kind of digital darkness.”

“The key difference from the pre-protest filternet arrangement is that, while internet platforms were extensively censored before, the regime is selectively whitelisting only a handful of services it deems critical for business needs.

“Even this selective access is sporadic, which means the censorship is likely still in the test phase,” he added. “In practice though, ordinary users remain offline.”

Toker described how the digital darkness “is in fact getting darker because the information controls are getting tighter.”

According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) at least 2,571 people were killed as of Monday, with additional deaths reported but not yet fully verified amid the communications blackout.

The internet blackout began Jan. 8 amid escalating demonstrations since Dec. 28, as authorities sought to prevent protesters from organizing, sharing videos of crackdowns and communicating with the outside world.

Since then, connectivity has remained inconsistent, with frequent outages and throttling even when partial access is restored.

Iran International reported the blackout was expected to last until at least late March, with IranWire saying government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani told media activists that access to international online services would not be restored before Nowruz, the Iranian New Year, on March 20.

“Having internet access was always a window to the outside and a lifeline for many Iranians,” Toker added. “It allowed for personal expression and culture that is banned by the regime.”

“These online freedoms can be as simple as online gaming, watching foreign movies or women’s ability to participate equally in spaces that would otherwise be barred by the Islamic Republic,” he added.

“With the internet blackout continuing, the curtain has been drawn on that window,” Toker said. “This is angering many Iranians, particularly Gen Z, who stand to lose a part of their identity.”

The blackout has also coincided with cyber incidents targeting Iran’s state infrastructure.

As previously reported by Fox News Digital, anti-regime activists hacked Iran’s national broadcaster, briefly interrupting state television to air protest messages and calls from Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah and a prominent opposition figure.

“We aren’t able to see the specific hack here,” Toker explained. “The lack of up-to-date security is an issue for Iran.”

“It is caused directly by the country’s digital isolation,” he said. “Iran’s internet systems are outdated, and security tools aren’t available due to internet restrictions.”

Toker added that embargoes force widespread use of pirated software, which often contains hidden vulnerabilities that can be exploited to breach critical networks.

He said cyber warfare played a major role during the June 2025 clashes between Israel and Iran, prompting the blackout as a defensive measure against digital attacks. Israel, he noted, also restricted parts of its own network at the time.

“In 2026, we haven’t seen the same focus on cyber incidents, but it’s clear there’s an ongoing battle between state actors as well as individual hackers,” Toker said.

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ABC News – Iranian activists say they are lobbying the Trump administration to allow U.S. satellite and communications companies to switch on their direct-to-cell service over Iran.

The appeal for special access to this service, which allows people’s cell phones to get an internet connection directly from satellites in space as opposed to a telecommunications tower, comes as an internet blackout in the country enters its second week after nationwide anti-government protests intensified last week.

Demonstrations began in late December with protesters chanting in Tehran against rising inflation and the falling value of the national currency before spreading across Iran and becoming more explicitly anti-government.

More than 4,000 people have died in Iran since the demonstrations began on Dec. 28, including nearly 3,800 protesters, according to the latest data published by the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), a U.S.-based group that relies on a network of activists in Iran for its reporting and has been accurate during previous unrest. While ABC News cannot confirm the number independently, the true toll is expected to be higher.

Iran has been in an internet blackout since Jan. 8, when Iranian authorities imposed a near-total shutdown on the twelfth straight day of protests as demonstrations spread across the country, creating an “information vacuum,” according to online monitoring and advocacy group NetBlocks.

Iranian Vice President Hossein Afshin said Monday that the country’s internet network will gradually return to “normal” and that existing restrictions will be lifted soon, as reported by the semi-official Tasnim News Agency.

With the Iran internet blackout now in its twelfth day on Monday, NetBlocks posted on X that metrics show the national connectivity “remains minimal.” The advocacy group added that in recent days, messages were occasionally allowed to go through, suggesting that the regime is testing a more heavily filtered intranet.

Since the blackout began, human rights groups and the international community have struggled to get any information out of the country to assess the extent of the Islamic Republic regime’s crackdown, described by several Iranian experts as “unprecedented.”

Internet, landline and cellphone services have remained cut nationwide for most of the time, with the exception of very limited and short-lived windows since Wednesday when some people have been able to make international calls via mobile phones.

Activists on the ground in Iran have been relying on SpaceX’s Starlink satellite terminals to beam images of the protests to the outside world. The devices, which are illegal in Iran, are the size of a small laptop and connect directly with satellites, providing a Wi-Fi connection to users. On Wednesday, SpaceX dropped all service charges for using Starlink in Iran.

The number of Starlink terminals currently in Iran is limited and smuggling more devices into the country would be dangerous and take time, according to Iranian opposition activist and cyber expert Nariman Gharib.

Since online traffic via Starlink does not go through Iranian infrastructure, the connection is independent and highly secure. But due to the high cost of the devices and the limited number of them in the country, people with Starlink terminals often share their internet connection with others through a virtual private network, or VPN, which also encrypts traffic but uses local infrastructure and is detectable by analyzing traffic patterns, according to Amir Rashidi, director of internet security and digital rights at the Miaan Group. The group is a U.S.-based human rights nonprofit focusing on Iran as well as the broader Middle East and North Africa region.

Gharib told ABC News he’s heard from people in Iran that authorities are going to households suspected of possessing illegal satellite dishes, which people use to watch international television channels, such as the U.K.-based Iran International.

Detectability shouldn’t be a concern with direct-to-cell service, which is when a mobile phone connects directly with a satellite overhead, bypassing any local infrastructure, as Rashidi said.

“Is it doable? Is it possible? I think so,” Rashidi told ABC News, in answer to whether activating the service is possible. “But being implemented is a completely different story, I think not only for this technology, [but] for any other technology that can help.”

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) would have to approve a license for American companies to offer direct-to-cell service in Iran.

ABC News has reached out to SpaceX for comment on the possibility of offering direct-to-cell service in Iran.

Gharib said companies are licensed to operate this service within specific geographic areas and regulatory parameters, and so the FCC’s authorization would be necessary for U.S. companies to beam signals into Iran.

The U.S. Department of Treasury would also need to ensure that issuing such an authorization wouldn’t violate existing sanctions against Iran, according to Gharib.

The White House did not immediately respond to ABC News’ request for comment on the matter.

Gharib said direct-to-cell is a growing market and several international companies offer the service. He estimates about 20% of Iranians would currently be able to access a direct-to-cell network.

Only relatively recent models of smartphones can access a direct-to-cell network and Gharib said the three most popular ones in Iran — the Samsung Galaxy A32, A51 and A54 — are all compatible. No additional hardware is needed as newer models can automatically connect, according to Gharib.

He said any delay in getting such a service up-and-running is “entirely bureaucratic” and a question of “political will” on the part of the U.S. government.

Rashidi agreed that “political willingness” from the U.S. and greater international community is one of “three key elements,” along with “having the right policy” and, of course, “money.”

“If you put together these three, there are solutions,” Rashidi told ABC News.

Amid reports of a mounting death toll and fears of executions for the thousands detained in Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump initially expressed his support for the Iranian protesters, telling them in a social media post Tuesday to “keep protesting” and that “help is on its way.” However, Trump told reporters Friday that he decided not to take military action on Iran at this time after the regime canceled all scheduled hangings for Thursday — more than 800 of them, he said.

Being shut off from the internet — and thus disconnected from the outside world — has instilled in the minds of many Iranians a sense of total helplessness, as they feel their voices have been silenced. The issue is “of great significance to the Iranian people” as the right to access information and freedom of speech are “fundamental rights,” Gharib said.

As the nationwide internet blackout in Iran surpassed the 200-hour mark, NetBlocks said in a social media post Saturday morning that “metrics show a very slight rise in internet connectivity,” but “overall connectivity remains at ~2% of ordinary levels and there is no indication of a significant return.” Earlier this week, NetBlocks noted the ongoing blackout had exceeded “the core duration of the 2019 shutdown,” and that “in 2019, it was only after connectivity was restored that the scale of the brutal crackdown became known.”

Filterwatch, a project of the Miaan Group, published a report Thursday warning that newly obtained intelligence indicates “a confidential plan is underway to turn international internet access into a ‘government privilege.’”

“State media and government spokespersons have already signaled that this is a permanent shift, warning that unrestricted access will not return after 2026,” Filterwatch stated in the report.

Filterwatch explained in a  post on X Sunday that the temporary partial restorations of services might be a sign of the regime developing a so-called “whitelist” of users. The list would consist of a very limited number of accounts, officials, government organizations and entities trusted by the regime that will be granted privileged internet access.

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The Guardian – A 16-year-old was among protesters sexually assaulted in custody by the security forces in Iran during the nationwide uprising that has left thousands dead, according to a human rights group.

Two people, one of them a child, detained in the city of Kermanshah in western Iran told the Kurdistan Human Rights Network (KHRN) that they were subjected to sexual abuse by riot police during their arrest.

“During the transfer, security forces touched their bodies with batons. They beat and applied pressure to the anal area with a baton through the clothing,” said Rebin Rahmani, of the KHRN, which has been in contact with sources close to the minor’s family.

Due to the ongoing communication blackout in Iran, neither the rights group nor the Guardian have been able to get further information on the current conditions of the individuals.

Rights groups have expressed fear about the treatment of more than 20,000 protesters estimated to have been arrested since the start of protests in late December.

During nationwide protests in 2022, detainees reported rapes, beatings and torture by police, with one woman telling the Guardian she had been blindfolded and sexually assaulted by her interrogators.

Since the start of the current protests in late December, 3,766 people have been killed and 8,949 other reported deaths are under investigation, according to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency.

The Norway-based Kurdish human rights group Hengaw said Sholeh Sotoudeh, a pregnant woman from Langarud, was killed along with her unborn child after forces opened fire on protesters in north-west Iran on 10 January.

In the latest unrest, at least one protester, 40-year-old Soran Feyzizadeh, has died as a result of torture while being held in custody, according to Hengaw. It said Feyzizadeh was detained during protests on 7 January and that his family was informed of his death two days later.

“His body was barely recognisable due to the extent of injuries caused by repeated blows,” said Awyar Shekhi, of Hengaw, who added that the family had to “pay a heavy sum just to retrieve his body from the authorities”.

In a message to the Guardian, a close relative of Feyzizadeh said he had been prevented from returning home to attend the funeral. “The city [Saqqez in western Iran] was militarised and movement was completely restricted,” the relative said. “I wanted to be with my family during this time but they didn’t allow it. They didn’t allow anyone to be with our family. They killed him. They killed Soran so brutally.”

Rahmani said they were investigating two further reports of deaths that had allegedly occurred in the custody of the security forces. One of them is a woman from Kermanshah and the other is a man from the city of Marivan. The internet blackout has made it impossible to interview protesters inside Iran.

The US-based Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran has documented the cases of more than 549 protesters, including 51 women, who have been transferred to Yazd central prison, and it expressed extreme concern over the lives of detainees.

“As street protests wind down, arbitrary arrests have increased as has the risk of torture for detainees,” said Roya Boroumand, the centre’s executive director. “Over the past decades we have documented numerous cases of death in custody alongside severe physical and psychological torture, including beating, flogging and sexual assault.”

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Al Jazeera – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has acknowledged that “several thousands” of Iranians have been killed since protests started in late December among shopkeepers in downtown Tehran, before gradually spreading to big and small cities.

That confirmation is unusual because Khamenei has typically avoided commenting on death tolls during previous protests in Iran over the years.

But there are stark contrasts in the narratives provided by the Iranian state, foreign-based opposition, and United States President Donald Trump over exactly what has happened during the unrest, and what could be coming next.

What do we know for certain?

The protests started over economic grievances in business and trade districts of the capital city on December 28, and morphed into nationwide expressions of anger and frustration at the political establishment over the days that followed.

The nights of January 8 and January 9 were by far the deadliest, according to state officials and media, as well as foreign-based outlets and eyewitness accounts on the ground.

Abbas Masjedi Arani, the head of Iran’s medical examiner authority, told state media that many of the casualties were shot in the chest or the head from close range or from rooftops with the aim of inflicting mortal wounds, while others were stabbed to death.

State outlets said most protesters were young Iranians, many in their 20s.

Iranian authorities have fully cut off access on the night of January 8, as well as mobile communications, so it was not even possible to call rescue services in cases of emergency.

The unprecedented internet blackout began to gradually scale back on Sunday after nearly two weeks, but most of the country’s 90-million-strong population remain in limbo amid uncertainty over what the future could hold.

Local calls, SMS text messages and outgoing international phone calls have been restored over recent days. A local intranet that offers some limited services is operational.

The protests on the streets have now largely died down, with thousands of heavily armed security forces setting up patrols and checkpoints across the country, especially at flashpoints like the Grand Bazaar in Tehran.

The distribution of videos of the protests outside of Iran has been rare amid the digital blackout, with only a minority of Iranians able to leave the country or connect to Starlink satellite internet that bypasses the government’s internet restrictions.

What does the state say?

Iranian officials, from political to military and judicial leaders, have emphasised on a daily basis that the US and Israel have been behind the protests, accusing the foreign powers of arming and funding the opposition.

Khamenei, Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader, said that Trump was a “criminal” for directly involving himself in the unrest numerous times.

According to Iranian government, armed and trained “terrorists”, not state forces, were directly responsible for the killings of thousands during the protests. They claim that people acting on behalf of the US and Israel shot and stabbed people to derail peaceful demonstrations.

Judiciary officials have stressed that those who took part in “riots” will face swift punishments without any mercy shown. The Supreme Court and the general prosecutor’s office announced on Sunday that they had formed a joint workgroup to expedite protest-related cases.

What are foreign-based monitors saying?

Foreign-based monitors and Iranians abroad who are opposed to the Iranian establishment maintain that state forces killed protesters in huge numbers.

The latest figures by the widely-cited Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), which is based in the US, say more than 3,300 deaths have been confirmed, and over 4,300 others are being investigated.

The organisation also says 2,107 people have been severely wounded, and more than 24,000 arrested.

The Reuters news agency on Sunday cited an unnamed Iranian official in the region as saying at least 5,000 people have been killed, including about 500 security personnel. Most deaths were reportedly recorded in the Kurdish-majority areas of Iran in the northwest.

Al Jazeera is unable to independently verify these figures.

Foreign-based outlets have also reported that Iranian authorities demand so-called “bullet money” from the families of protesters killed by security forces in order to allow their burial, or demand that families sign documents saying they were members of the Basij paramilitary force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and not protesters. Iranian officials have rejected both claims.

What are the US and Israel saying?

US and Israeli officials have been openly touting the potential for toppling the theocratic leadership in Tehran over recent months, including during the 12-day war in June.

At the height of the protests, Trump urged Iranians to remain in the streets, alleging “help is on the way”, before expressing “great respect” for the Iranian leadership based on a claim that planned executions for more than 800 political prisoners were halted.

The US president “speaks a lot of nonsense”, Tehran prosecutor Ali Salehi said on Saturday in reaction to the claim, adding that “our response will be deterring and quick”.

But Trump has not stopped his comments, and on Saturday called for the end of Khamenei’s 37-year rule and branded the Iranian leader a “sick man”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refrained from directly commenting on the protests. Israeli public broadcaster Kan reported that Netanyahu ordered his officials to stop giving interviews on the subject after Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu said last week that Israeli operatives are active in Iran “right now” as they were during the 12-day war.

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House of Commons Library (UK Parliament) – On 28 December 2025, protests began in Iran, initially sparked by economic grievances. They subsequently spread and became among the largest in recent years. Monitors assess that the majority of protests ended around mid-January 2026.

The regime launched a violent response to the protests. However, an internet shutdown from 8 January and existing restrictions on foreign media access has meant it has been difficult to assess the degree of violence and spread of the protests. Internet access remains limited, as of mid-January.

This briefing sets out the situation in Iran, assessments on the significance of the protests, and the international response, including that of the UK Government, which has condemned the violence and plans new sanctions.

How extensive were the protests?

The protests reflect their immediate origins being in Iran’s weakening economy, with the first protests occurring among Iran’s shopkeepers on 28 December 2025. They subsequently spread, with students and other Iranians joining the protests, as well as in other regions across Iran.

The Commons Library briefing Iran: What challenges face the country in 2026? (9 January 2026) provides background on Iran’s weakened domestic and international position as it enters 2026.

Demands of protests

Iran analysts noted a wide range of demands by protesters. These included demands for economic reforms, but others recalled demands from previous rounds of protests including an end to Iranian support for armed groups in the Middle East and for the restoration of the monarchy through Reza Pahlavi (his father having lost power in the 1979 revolution).

There are many opposition groups, operating both within Iran and abroad. However, these groups are not united and offer competing claims of representation and leadership. As set out in the Atlantic Council’s The fractured opposition to the Islamic Regime (2023) and the US Institute for Peace’s Profiles: Iranian Opposition Groups (2020) their popularity within Iran is also uncertain.

Reza Pahlavi, who is the son of the last Shah and who is based in the US, is one figure among the Iranian opposition groups. In 2026, as in earlier protests, Reza Pahlavi called for Iranians to remove the Islamic Republic. On a potential return to the monarchy, he has said that “my role is not to run for office” and that decisions on Iran’s future will be settled through a democratic transition.

Assessing the extent of the 2026 protests

Analysts note that while the intensity of the protests ebbed and flowed in early 2026, groups typically considered loyal to the regime also participated. Protests also occurred in areas populated by minority ethnic groups, such as Kurds. For background on the treatment of minorities in Iran, see the Commons Library briefing on the 2022 Iran protests.

International monitors such as the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that the number of protests in Iran peaked around 7 to 8 January 2026. At this point, Iranian authorities shut down internet access.

This made it hard for international observers to assess the continued strength of the protests. Foreign news agencies, including the BBC, are banned from working in Iran and journalists in Iran have reported targeted threats and violence. Elon Musk’s Starlink has been attempting to restore internet access.

The below map from the ISW shows the distribution of protests on 7 to 8 January 2026. On 14 January 2026, Iran’s Foreign Minister said that “calm” had been re-established in the country. On 15 January 2026, the ISW said that the protests had largely come to an end.

How did the Iranian authorities respond?

Announcements of reform

Iranian authorities initially differentiated between “protesters” and “rioters” in their public statements. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said “we will speak with the protesters but […] rioters should be put in their place”. As in past protests, the regime blamed outside actors for the protests.

Reflecting the economic spark to the protests, the government announced changes to the subsidy system to help manage rising inflation and prices. The Iranian Central Bank chief also resigned. Measures have not been announced to address other drivers of discontent, including energy and water shortages (which in 2025 were sufficiently severe that the Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, suggested moving the capital from Tehran).

Increased violence and arrests

Increased state violence and measures were employed in response to the 2026 protests. These included blocking access to the internet from 8 January 2026. This tactic had been deployed in past protests in 2019 and 2022; on both previous occasions, blocking access to the internet was followed by extensive state violence. In January, authorities also began to describe protests as “terrorism”.

As of mid-January 2026, internet access in Iran remains limited. However, on 18 January the Iranian President requested that state security to restore internet access.

The number of casualties (both protesters and security forces) is uncertain and cannot be independently verified.

The Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has acknowledged that “several thousand” people have been killed, blaming the US and Israel for inciting the protests.

The Norway-based Iran Human Rights organisation says that at least 3,428 protesters have been killed since the start of the protests and that around 20,000 have been arrested. The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency says 3,919 protesters have been killed and around 24,700 detained (estimates to 15 and 18 January 2026, respectively). Arrests are continuing.

These estimates compare with around 537 killed and 19,200 people arrested in the 2022–23 protests, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency.

As set out in the BBC Monitoring article, “Why casualty estimates from Iran’s protests vary so widely”, a range of other estimates on the number of people killed have been published. The Iranian government has not published a figure.

In 2026, Iran’s judiciary has said trials will be organised quickly, and that charges carrying the death penalty will be applied among those arrested. The Iranian Foreign Minister has since said there are no plans for hangings.

Some pro-regime rallies were also held.

Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have called on other states, under the principle of universal jurisdiction, to initiate criminal investigations against those in Iran responsible for violence and human rights violations.

How far were the protests a threat to the Iranian regime?

Foreign policy analysts assessed the threat posed to the regime during the protests and they largely judged that the regime was likely to survive. However, the regime’s regional and domestic position is now judged to be much weaker than in the past.

At a minimum, if the regime is to survive, analysts judge that the economic grievances that sparked the protests must be addressed. However, Chatham House analysis argues that Iran has a “political order that has lost its capacity to adapt” and that the protests will be far from an “aberration”.

One article in the Atlantic magazine argued that the key five conditions for a revolution were “nearly” met. These conditions were: a fiscal crisis, divided elites, a diverse oppositional coalition, a convincing narrative of resistance and a favourable international environment. Analysis for the same magazine argues that opposition groups must first unite to allow them to better capitalise on the discontent.

Analysis for the Royal United Services Institute thinktank notes that fear of state collapse (like the state collapse in Libya after Colonel Gaddafi was removed in 2011) or a long civil war (like the civil war in Syria between 2011 and 2024) has informed some of the hesitancy among opposition groups.

Iranian security forces also remained loyal to the regime during the 2025–26 protests, with no reports of defections. No public dissent within the leadership towards Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been reported (even as the battle for Khamenei’s successor continues).

Analysis for Foreign Policy magazine also cites a lack of coordination among opposition groups, and that the regime can still potentially address its economic challenges through measures such as subsidy and anti-corruption reforms.

An article in Foreign Affairs magazine said that the effects of a potential US military strike (see below) were likely to rally support around the regime. However, an article for the Washington Institute thinktank argued that the extent of state violence represents a “watershed” for Iran, and that greater US pressure through cyber-threats and a demonstration of air superiority could compel the regime to reform.

Analysis for BBC News and the Arab Gulf States Institute notes that the regime may ultimately be heading for a “slow collapse”.

The International Crisis Group has warned that “some of Iran’s possible futures could well be worse”. It cites the potential for sectarian violence (Iran has many minority religious and ethnic groups) and the need to secure Iran’s enriched uranium.

Neither would the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps necessarily disappear in any post-Khamenei Iran, given the group’s extensive military and economic presence.

How has the UK responded?

The UK has condemned the violence

Addressing the Commons on 13 January 2026, Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper, said the UK “condemns in the strongest terms” Iranian state violence against protesters. She said that the Iranian regime’s response was “no outlier” but “in keeping with the fundamental nature and track record of the regime”.

The Foreign Secretary has raised the government’s concerns directly with her Iranian counterpart.

The UK Government has also issued a joint statement with Germany and France urging Iran to protect the right to protest, as well as with the G7 group of states condemning the violence.

The government has also said that decisions on Iran’s future are “for the Iranian people”.

Foreign Secretary plans more sanctions

A range of existing UK measures target the Iranian leadership, Iranians accused of human rights violations, Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programmes, Iran’s support for armed and terrorist groups abroad, and Iranian state activity in the UK (see the next section).

In response to the protests, in January 2026, the Foreign Secretary said that the government will be bringing forward legislation to implement further sanctions.

She said these would target “finance, energy, transport, software and other significant industries that are advancing Iranian nuclear escalation”. These will be implemented alongside other partners, including the European Union, which has announced similar intentions for further sanctions.

The Liberal Democrat Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Callum Miller, has called for Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei to be sanctioned directly (the US has applied direct sanctions against Khamenei and his office since 2019).

Existing UK measures against Iran

UK sanctions and other measures against Iran include those outlined in the bullet points below. The Commons Library briefings on Iran’s influence in the Middle East, the UK’s response to the 2022-23 protests, Iran’s nuclear programme, and the UK response to Iranian state threats provide more detail.

• As of 14 January 2026, there are 286 individuals and 260 organisations sanctioned under the UK’s Iran and Iran (nuclear) regimes. Sanctioned organisations include the morality police and the Basij paramilitary force, which has been deployed to supress protests.
• In October 2025, the UK, together with France and Germany, triggered the UN’s “snapback sanctions” against Iran under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. As UN sanctions, all UN member states are expected to comply. Measures target Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes.
• Under the existing Iran (nuclear) sanctions regimes, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been sanctioned in its entirety. Despite calls within Parliament for the IRGC to be proscribed as a terrorist group, this has not happened. Proscribing creates offences such as being a member of, or encouraging support for, the organisation in question, and allows financial sanctions to be imposed upon it. The government says proscription of the IRGC remains under review, though it notes that there are challenges to proscribing a state body such as the IRGC, and that the effects may be limited as it is already sanctioned.
• In 2025, the government said it would introduce a new power targeting state-backed organisations, following a recommendation from the Independent Reviewer of Terrorism and State Threats Legislation (PDF). In January 2026, the Shadow Foreign Secretary, Dame Priti Patel, called for the legislation on state-backed organisations to be sped up. The government has said the legislation will be progressed “in due course”.
• In 2025, the UK placed Iran on the enhanced tier of the foreign influence registration scheme (only Russia is similarly designated). Restrictions apply to the IRGC and other parts of the Iranian state.

UK soft power in Iran

The UK Government and UK TV licence-fee payers also fund the BBC World Service, which includes BBC Persian.

While BBC Persian is blocked in Iran, the BBC estimates 13 million Iranians (in a country of 91 million) have accessed the service.

How has the US responded?

The US has long had the most extensive sanctions regime in place against Iran, targeting it not only militarily but also economically. This means its capacity to apply new sanctions is limited.

President Trump’s statements on intervention

Since the beginning of the protests in late December 2025, President Trump has threatened on several occasions that the US would intervene in Iran, and warned the regime against violently suppressing protests.

Speaking on 13 January 2026, President Trump said that if protestors were executed by Iranian authorities “we will take very strong action”, and that “help is on its way”. He cited economic action as one part of this action (see the below subsection on tariffs).

President Trump also announced that he had cancelled any US meetings with Iranian officials. Iran says it remains open for talks.

Media reports suggest that the US administration had been briefed on several potential steps. These included cyberattacks, air strikes and economic action.

On 14 January 2026, the President said that the US assessment was that both protests and violence had declined and that he would now “watch what the process is” in Iran. He has also said that “it’s time to look for new leadership in Iran”.

Addressing the UN Security Council on 15 January, the US representative, Mike Waltz, said that “all options are on the table to stop the slaughter”.

Iranian response to potential military action

Iran has blamed Israel and the United States for the protests, and said any foreign military intervention will be met with force.

In response to the June 2025 Israel/US strikes on its nuclear facilities, Iran attacked a US base in Qatar.

Iran was also in contact with regional states including Turkey, Oman, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Turkey cautioned against military action and Oman and Qatar called for de-escalation.

The US has a wide military presence in the Middle East, including the forward headquarters of its Central Command at Al Udeid in Qatar (the base that Iran attacked in June 2025) and the headquarters of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. Some US and UK personnel were withdrawn from Al Udeid on 14 and 15 January 2026.

Russia and China response to potential action

While in 2025 Russia signed a new strategic treaty with Iran, as was the case with the June 2025 strikes by Israel and the United States, it is not expected to militarily defend Iran.

Russia has condemned the threat of foreign intervention. On 13 January 2026, a spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry criticised “subversive external interference in Iran’s internal political processes” and said “the threats emanating from Washington regarding further military strikes against [Iran] are categorically unacceptable”.

China has also opposed outside intervention in Iran.

UK response to potential US military action

In response to parliamentary questions on potential US military strikes on Iran, the UK Foreign Secretary said “the US response will be a matter for the US Government”.

Responding to a question about whether it “would be right for America and its allies to help with the removal of that regime”, the Leader of the Opposition, Kemi Badenoch, said “I think that given the threat that we’re seeing to the people, I think that would be right”, as part of a coalition of countries. She said that any “calculation always has to be about our [the UK’s] national interest” and that it “all depends on exactly what the situation is”.

New US sanctions

On 15 January 2026, the US announced new sanctions against several Iranian security officials who it says were responsible for the state response to the protests. The US also announced new sanctions against members of Iran’s “shadow banking” network, which is used to help fund the regime and avoid sanctions.

Proposed tariffs on countries trading with Iran

On 12 January 2026, President Trump announced that the US would apply 25% tariffs on countries that continue to trade with Iran. No further announcements have been made, including on how this tariff would interact with existing tariff rates.

According to the UN Conference on Trade and Development, China is Iran’s largest trading partner. The majority of the trade is sanctioned oil.

China is followed by Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. European Union data suggests that in 2024 the bloc as a whole was Iran’s fourth-largest goods-trading partner (PDF).

Germany is assessed to be Europe’s largest trading partner with Iran. In 2025, German–Iranian trade totalled around US$1 billion.

The UK continues to trade with Iran: in the year to June 2025, total UK–Iran trade totalled £420 million (PDF). Government guidance for companies trading with Iran says it “supports sanctions-compliant trade with Iran”, which includes adhering to US and other restrictions on trading with certain individuals or goods.

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ABC News – Hackers disrupted Iranian state television satellite transmissions to air footage supporting the country’s exiled crown prince and calling on security forces to not “point your weapons at the people,” online video showed early Monday, the latest disruption to follow nationwide protests in the country.

The hacking comes as the death toll in a crackdown by authorities that smothered the demonstrations reached at least 3,941 people, activists said. They fear the number will grow far higher as information leaks out of a country still gripped by the government’s decision to shut down the internet. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had his invitation to speak at the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland, withdrawn over the killings.

Meanwhile, tensions remain high between the United States and Iran over the crackdown after President Donald Trump drew two red lines for the Islamic Republic — the killing of peaceful protesters and Tehran conducting mass executions in the wake of the demonstrations. A U.S. aircraft carrier, which days earlier had been in the South China Sea, passed Singapore overnight to enter the Strait of Malacca — putting it on a route that could bring it to the Middle East.

The footage aired Sunday night across multiple channels broadcast by satellite from Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, the country’s state broadcaster. The video aired two clips of exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, then included footage of security forces and others in what appeared to be Iranian police uniforms. It claimed without offering evidence others had “laid down their weapons and swore an oath of allegiance to the people.”

“This is a message to the army and security forces,” one graphic read. “Don’t point your weapons at the people. Join the nation for the freedom of Iran.”

The semiofficial Fars news agency, believed to be close to the country’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, quoted a statement from the state broadcaster acknowledging that the signal in “some areas of the country was momentarily disrupted by an unknown source.” It did not discuss what had been aired.

A statement from Pahlavi’s office acknowledged the disruption that showed the crown prince. It did not respond to questions from The Associated Press about the hack. How much support Pahlavi has inside of Iran remains an open question, though there have been pro-shah cries at the demonstrations and at night since the crackdown.

Sunday’s hack isn’t the first to see Iranian airwaves disrupted. In 1986, The Washington Post reported that the CIA supplied the prince’s allies “a miniaturized television transmitter for an 11-minute clandestine broadcast” to Iran by Pahlavi that pirated the signal of two stations in the Islamic Republic.

In 2022, multiple channels aired footage showing leaders from the exiled opposition group Mujahedeen-e-Khalq and a graphic calling for the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

As tensions remain high between Tehran and Washington, ship-tracking data analyzed by the AP on Monday showed the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, as well as other American military vessels, in the Strait of Malacca after passing Singapore on a route that could take them to the Middle East.

The Lincoln had been in the South China Sea with its strike group as a deterrent to China over tensions with Taiwan. Tracking data showed that the USS Frank E. Petersen Jr., the USS Michael Murphy and the USS Spruance, all Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers, were traveling with the Lincoln through the strait.

Multiple U.S. media reports quoting anonymous officials have said the Lincoln, which has its homeport in San Diego, was on its way to the Mideast. It likely would still need several days of travel before its aircraft would be in range of the region. The Mideast has been without an aircraft carrier group or an amphibious ready group, likely complicating any discussion of a military operation targeting Iran given Gulf Arab states’ broad opposition to such an attack.

“Although he was invited last fall, the tragic loss of lives of civilians in Iran over the past few weeks means that it is not right for the Iranian government to be represented at Davos this year,” the forum said.

Iran’s ambassador to Switzerland, Mahmoud Barimani, called the decision an “unreasonable act which was no doubt under the pressure and influence of anti-Iranian currents and radical American-Zionists.”

The Munich Security Conference separately withdrew invitation for Iranian government officials over the crackdown.

The death toll exceeds that of any other round of protest or unrest in Iran in decades, and recalls the chaos surrounding the 1979 revolution. The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency put the death toll Monday to at least 3,941, warning it likely would go higher.

The agency has been accurate throughout the years of demonstrations and unrest in Iran, relying on a network of activists inside the country that confirms all reported fatalities. The AP has been unable to independently confirm the toll.

Iranian officials have not given a clear death toll, although on Saturday, Khamenei said the protests had left “several thousand” people dead and blamed the United States for the deaths. It was the first indication from an Iranian leader of the extent of the casualties from the wave of protests that began Dec. 28 over Iran’s ailing economy.

The agency also reported over 25,700 people had been arrested. Comments from officials have led to fears of some of those detained being put to death in Iran, one of the world’s top executioners.

“While the killers and seditious terrorists will be punished, Islamic mercy and leniency will be applied to those who were deceived and did not have (effective) roles in the terrorist event,” a statement Monday from Iran’s president, its judiciary chief and parliament speaker said.

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The Hindu – More than 3,000 people have died in Iran’s nationwide protests, rights activists said on Saturday (January 17, 2026), while a “very slight rise” in ‍internet activity was reported in the country after an eight-day blackout.

The U.S.-based HRANA ​group said it had verified 3,090 deaths, including 2,885 protesters, ‌after residents said the crackdown appeared to have broadly ​quelled protests for now and state media reported more arrests.

The capital Tehran has been comparatively quiet for four days, said several residents reached by Reuters. Drones were flying over the city, but there were no signs of major protests on Thursday (January 15, 2026) or Friday (January 16, 2026), said the residents, who asked not to be identified for their safety.

A resident of a ​northern city on the Caspian Sea said the streets there also ⁠appeared calm.

The protests erupted on December 28 over economic hardship and swelled into widespread demonstrations calling for the end of clerical rule in the Islamic Republic, culminating in mass ​violence late last week. According ⁠to opposition groups and an Iranian official, more than 2,000 people were killed in the worst domestic unrest since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.

“Metrics show a very slight rise in internet connectivity in #Iran this ‌morning” after 200 hours of shutdown, the internet monitoring group NetBlocks ‌posted on X. Connectivity remained around 2% of ordinary levels, it said.

A few Iranians overseas said on social ‍media that they had been able to message users living inside Iran early on Saturday (January 17, 2026).

U.S. President Donald Trump, who had threatened “very strong action” if Iran ‍executed protesters, said Tehran’s leaders had called off mass hangings.

“I greatly respect the fact that all scheduled hangings, which were to take place yesterday (Over 800 of them), have been cancelled by the leadership of Iran. Thank you!” he posted on social media.

Iran had not announced plans for such executions or said it had cancelled them.

Indian students and pilgrims returning from Iran said they were largely confined to their accommodations while in the country, ⁠unable to communicate with their families back home.

“We only heard stories of violent protests, and one man jumped in ​front of our car holding a burning baton, shouting something in the local ⁠language, with anger visible in his eyes,” said Z. Syeda, a third-year medical student at a university in Tehran.

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Anadolu Agency –  Iran will gradually lift internet and communication restrictions imposed following violence during protests that began over economic hardship late last month, the semi-official Fars news agency reported on Saturday.

Citing security officials, the news agency said the decision comes after “security issues were brought under control” and key figures of “terror organizations” were detained by security forces.

Officials claimed that “limiting internet access significantly weakened the internal connections of opposition networks abroad” and preventing the operations of “terror cells.”

According to the plan to restore services based on security conditions, text messaging services (SMS) have been reactivated as the first step, with full access to the national internet network and domestic apps to follow in the second phase before international internet access is restored in the third stage.

Local sources confirmed that access to domestic messaging applications such as Eita and Bale has been restored after days of disruption.

The restrictions were implemented after protests over economic hardships turned violent on Jan. 8.

Officials said the government is “fully aware of its human rights obligations” toward its citizens and has taken “all necessary measures to exercise maximum restraint” while also fulfilling its “duty to protect its people and maintain public order and national security.”

Separately, internet monitor NetBlocks said metrics showed a slight rise in internet connectivity in Iran on Saturday morning. However, overall connectivity remains at 2% of ordinary levels and there is no indication of a significant return, it said on US social media company X.

While Iranian officials have not released any official casualty figures, a US-based human rights monitor said the death climbed to 3,090.

The Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said another 2,055 people have also been injured and 22,123 individuals detained across the country since the unrest began.

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