United States, Iran tensions cause jump in oil prices. What we know

“Even with bountiful oil supplies here in the United States and an expectation for a global oil oversupply over the next few years, an escalating conflict would cause major disruption to product flows around the world and lead to higher prices,” said Schieldrop.

Prices are already expected to increase over the spring months because of seasonal changes that occur every year, experts said.

Demand for gasoline increases every year when the weather gets warmer. As demand rises, so will prices. The summer blend of gasoline also costs more to produce than winter blend, which contributes to the seasonal rising costs, said Schieldrop.

Nationally, gasoline prices are the lowest they’ve been for this time of year since 2021, according to AAA. Hathorn believes because of these low prices, tension with Iran would cause gas prices to balloon at a higher rate.

“Because oil prices are starting from a relatively low base, the market may be underpricing the scale of a potential upside spike if conflict materializes,” said Hathorn.

Other analysts such as Patrick De Haan, who has been an expert in studying gasoline markets for two decades, is less concerned about the Iranian conflict. He acknowledges that the spike in prices are a result of the geopolitical events but believes future increases will be more because of standard seasonal reasons.

De Haan does not expect the Iranian and United States tension will cause record-breaking changes like in 2022 when the Russia and Ukraine war, among other reasons, caused a steep increase in gasoline prices. He said this situation is different as Russia was a much larger oil supplier with less sanctions than Iran.

“Don’t expect a record-setting year like in 2022 even if there is a major conflict with Iran,” said De Haan.

 

The United States and Iran conflict

Over the past few months, President Donald Trump has been threatening to use military force against Iran over the Middle Eastern nation’s nuclear program and recent violent crackdown against protesters.

Trump said on social media on Jan. 28 that Iran would have to deal with an “armada” of warships if the country does not make a deal on nuclear weapons. The president has increased military presence at the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf.

Threats have also been made against Iran if the country does not halt the killing of anti-government protesters. More than 6,800 deaths have been recorded since unrest began in December, according to The Human Rights Activists News Agency. Trump said Iran’s supreme leader told him the country has stopped killing protesters.

Iran’s leaders, like Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have responded with self-defense threats if attacked. “We are not the initiators and do not want to attack any country, but the Iranian nation will strike a strong blow against anyone who attacks and harasses them,” he said in Iranian state-run media.

The United States government, along with the Israeli government, bombed Iranian nuclear targets in June 2025.

Trump pulled out of an international nuclear accord with Iran during his first presidential term in 2018.