Iran protests end after bloody crackdown; US tariffs hang on markets

ICIS (Independent Commodity Intelligence Services) – Iran’s major trading partners which include China and India continue to face tariff threats from the US while Tehran announced the end to the weeks-long nationwide protests following a bloody crackdown.

• Government crackdown on protests leaves thousands dead – reports
• China PET exports to the US face further headwinds
• Little impact on India aromatics if tariffs take effect

“The sedition is over now”, Iran prosecutor general Mohammad Movahedi announced on 21 January as quoted by the judiciary’s Mizan News agency.

Iranian state television channel IRIB TV reported on the same day that 3,117 people have been killed in the protests – the first official death toll given by the government.

The death toll is higher – at least 4,500 – based on estimates from US‑based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA).

Protesters had begun to fill the streets from 28 December 2025 after a drastic weakening of the rial (IR) amid sanctions and economic instability, with Tehran blaming “foreign agents” such as the US for the protests.

A country-wide communications blackout was put in place as the government cracked down on protesters. Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei announced in a televised address on 17 January 2026 that “several thousand people” had been killed.

“Iran will not lead into war but will not let domestic or international criminals go unpunished,” Khamenei said, further claiming that protests have been “extinguished”.

While US President Donald Trump had called for a new leadership in Iran, the situation has not escalated into US military intervention after days of threats that the US was “ready” to intervene.

Trump also announced on 12 January additional 25% US tariffs with “immediate effect” on any country doing business with Iran. No executive order has so far been issued for this to take effect.

Iran, a member of oil cartel OPEC, is a major supplier of crude to both China and India.

China is estimated to account for more than 80% of Iran’s crude exports, with its crude imports likely to remain strong in Q1 2026.

Concerns that Iran protests and a possible US military strike would disrupt global crude supply had sent Brent crude climbing above $65/barrel, pushing up prices of petrochemical feedstock naphtha and aromatics.

There are fears that Iran would respond to a US intervention by shutting the Strait of Hormuz, on which about one-fifth of the total global petroleum trades passes.

Oil prices have come down since last week as market fears over Iran subsided and market focus reverted back to a supply glut amid weak demand, although geopolitical risks in Europe heightened on the US’ planned annexation of Greenland.

Trump had initially warned eight European countries opposing his plans on Greenland of additional tariffs of 10% starting 1 February, which would rise to 25% on 1 June.

However, in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on 21 January, Trump retracted his threats and agreed that the US will not “use force” to take control of Greenland.

At midday, Brent crude was up by 8 cents at $65.32/barrel, while US crude edged up by 14 cents at $60.76/barrel.

 

US TARIFFS HANG ON MARKETS
Asian emerging market giants – China and India – are in the list of Iran’s top trading partners. Apart from crude, they also import sizeable volumes of methanol from the Middle Eastern country.

“China’s position against the indiscriminate imposition of tariffs is consistent and clear. Tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and coercion and pressure cannot solve problems,” Liu Pengyu, spokesperson of the Chinese embassy in the US, said on 13 January.

“China firmly opposes any illicit unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction and will take all necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests,” Liu added.

Meanwhile, India is still in the process of working on a bilateral trade deal with the US to bring down the current 50% US tariffs on India goods.

The south Asian nation was mum on the possibility of additional tariffs by the US.

 

CHINA PET MARKET BRACES FOR NEW US TARIFFS
The US’ average tariffs on Chinese goods currently stand at 47%, including those imposed during Trump’s first term in office.

Notwithstanding the high tariffs, the US remains a major market for several Chinese commodities, including polyethylene terephthalate (PET).

If the US’ 25% additional tariffs were implemented, China’s PET exports would come under threat. This would double the current 25% tariffs that apply to Chinese PET.

“China exports a sizeable amount of PET to the US, but those are already under anti-dumping duties (ADDs) of 4.2% so that’s additional pressure on this,” ICIS analyst Salmon Aidan Lee said.

In 2025, Chinese PET exports to the US ballooned to 1.23 million tonnes from just 168,000 tonnes in the previous year, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database.

Front-loading of exports led to spike in PET shipments between March-May ahead of implementation of US’ reciprocal tariffs.

“China also exports a sizeable volume of textiles and fibres to the US, and the additional 25% tariffs would be a dent on these products as well,” Lee said.

Trade flows are likely to shift if the US’ additional tariffs do take effect, which could exacerbate Asia’s supply glut if cargoes bound for the US stayed in Asia.

Since the US-China trade war heightened last year, Chinese exports have shifted toward alternative destinations including southeast Asia, the EU and India.

 

LIMITED IMPACT ON INDIA AROMATIC EXPORTS
As for India, apart from small volumes of benzene exports on an opportunistic basis, there would be limited impact on key aromatics trade for the country, according to Darryl Xu, analyst at ICIS.

India, already facing 50% tariffs from the US over its purchases of sanctioned Russian oil, has shifted focus to boosting domestic production and local consumption to boost GDP growth.

In aid of local manufacturers, India instituted reforms including cutting goods and services tax (GST), and made available around $5 billion worth of support package for exporters under its “Export Promotion Mission” (EPM).

Amid delays in the US-India bilateral trade deal, India’s commodity exports to the US are likely to be either moved elsewhere or decline outright amid weak demand.

In December 2025, the south Asian country’s overall plastics shipments fell by 9.6% year on year to $705.9 million.

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